Strategic Dreamers

Foresight-to-Strategy: Carlsberg Polska Vision 2035 Pathways

Carlsberg Polska | Strategic Foresight & Strategy Design

From scenario-based foresight to a participatory Vision 2035 and actionable transition pathways

Challenge

Following a full strategic foresight cycle – horizon scanning, critical uncertainties, scenario building, and a leadership implications workshop – Strategic Dreamers translated the foresight evidence into three proposed long-term development directions for Carlsberg Polska.

The next challenge was to validate and enrich these directions with a cross-functional group, then build a shared, multi-perspective Vision 2035, and finally transform that vision into credible, phased pathways and prioritised first moves .

This required a process that could:

• maintain strategic optionality while still enabling operational choices,
• bridge long-term transformation and near-term delivery,
• create alignment across functions without forcing artificial consensus,
• translate abstract future ambition into sequenced capability-building and decision points.

Approach

Strategic Dreamers designed and facilitated a continuation process combining participatory visioning, Three Horizons, and backcasting, with an explicit focus on turning future orientation into actionable coherence.

1) Validation of the three foresight-derived development directions
We revisited the directions with a broader organisational group to test their relevance. The output was not a “vote”, but a structured refinement: clarifying strategic intent, boundary conditions, and the organisational implications of each direction.

2) Building a multi-aspect Vision 2035 (co-created)
The vision was constructed as an integrated view of the future organisation: how value is created, what capabilities become differentiating, what relationships matter most, and how the business model may evolve under multiple plausible futures.

3) Three Horizons mapping (H1 / H2 / H3) to manage transformation
The Three Horizons method was used to distinguish:

• H3: the desired future state (Vision 2035),
• H2: transition mechanisms (experiments, new capabilities, structural shifts),
• H1: the current model (what must be adapted, or gradually phased out).

This framing prevents a common trap: treating transformation as one linear programme, instead positioning it as a managed set of simultaneous moves.

4) Backcasting pathways for “clusters of change”
Instead of backcasting from broad aspirations, we backcasted from clusters of change – capability-and-system themes that make the Vision 2035 real. Each cluster generated pathways that link long-term outcomes to mid-term enablers and near-term starting actions.

5) Prioritisation of first moves
We concluded with a structured prioritisation to identify the most critical “first steps” that unlock multiple pathways.

Outcome

A confidential, execution-oriented transformation logic – moving from foresight insights to strategic direction, and from direction to shared vision and practical transition planning.

Outcomes included:

• Three foresight-derived development directions proposed by Strategic Dreamers and validated through cross-functional engagement.
• A co-created Vision 2035.
• A set of Three Horizons pathways and backcasted transition routes organised around high-level clusters of change (capabilities, operating model shifts, ways of creating value).
• A prioritised set of near-term starting moves.

Scale

• End-to-end foresight-to-strategy architecture: scanning → uncertainties → scenarios → leadership implications → direction-setting → validation → Vision 2035 → Three Horizons + backcasting → prioritisation.
• High leadership intensity: senior management and board-level engagement in the earlier phase, followed by broader cross-functional participation in the continuation phase.
• Designed for implementation: outputs structured to support decision-making, sequencing, and ownership.