Carlsberg Polska | FMCG
Challenge
Help Carlsberg Polska move beyond a standard planning horizon and build a shared, cross-functional view of what could shape the beer and beverage business over the next decade – amid accelerating regulatory pressure, shifting consumption patterns, macro-instability, and technological disruption – while translating long-term uncertainty into near-term strategic preparedness?
Approach
A multi-stage foresight process combining quantitative and qualitative inputs with futures methods: an anonymous internal survey to surface hopes, fears, critical assumptions, and key uncertainties; structured horizon scanning across macro, meso, and micro levels; uncertainty mapping and synthesis into four exploratory scenarios in a 10+ year horizon.
This was followed by a two-day, in-person strategic workshop in Warsaw for 60 top managers representing multiple functions (marketing, sales, HR, production, logistics, finance, legal) plus the Board. Participants worked with scenario analysis canvases and conducted wind-tunneling using a readiness framework spanning capabilities such as networks/partnerships, people/skills, knowledge, tools/technology, processes, and rules/regulation – ending with a structured synthesis into strategic implications and “no-regret” directions (without committing to a single forecast).
Outcome
A comprehensive foresight package supporting long-term strategy and transformation work: a detailed report documenting the process (drivers of change, uncertainty landscape, scenario set, and cross-scenario strategic implications), plus an executive-ready presentation and workshop outputs enabling alignment across functions.
A separate presentation operationalising three development directions, each translated into recommendations and no-regret moves across three horizons: “today / tomorrow / the day after tomorrow” to support prioritisation and sequencing.
Scale
60 top managers + the Board; 1 survey (56 participants); 3–4 weeks horizon scanning; 2 workshop days + keynote; 4 exploratory scenarios; 10+ year horizon, 1 presentation for the Board focused on development directions and pathways.
